Risk simulator
See the max drawdown your win rate, R:R and risk imply — know your expectancy before you trade it.
Final balance
$101,002
Profit
$1,002
Return?Final profit as % of the starting balance.
1.00%
Max drawdown?Deepest drop from an equity peak during the run.
-14.35%
Expectancy (R)?Average result per trade in R. Positive = a profitable edge.
0.35R
Breakeven win rate?Win rate needed just to break even at this R:R.
33.3%
Trades
100
Equity curve (P&L)
+1 002 $
Max drawdown over 500 random runs?Runs 500 random simulations to show the range of max drawdown you can expect.
Run 500 random simulations to see the drawdown you should expect.
| # | Win/Loss | Pre-balance | P&L | After-balance | Drawdown | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1 | $100,000 | $2,000 | $102,000 | 0.00% | $100,000 |
| 2 | −1 | $102,000 | -$1,020 | $100,980 | -1.00% | $102,000 |
| 3 | −1 | $100,980 | -$1,010 | $99,970 | -1.99% | $102,000 |
| 4 | −1 | $99,970 | -$1,000 | $98,970 | -2.97% | $102,000 |
| 5 | +1 | $98,970 | $1,979 | $100,950 | -1.03% | $102,000 |
| 6 | +1 | $100,950 | $2,019 | $102,969 | 0.00% | $102,000 |
| 7 | +1 | $102,969 | $2,059 | $105,028 | 0.00% | $102,969 |
| 8 | −1 | $105,028 | -$1,050 | $103,978 | -1.00% | $105,028 |
| 9 | −1 | $103,978 | -$1,040 | $102,938 | -1.99% | $105,028 |
| 10 | −1 | $102,938 | -$1,029 | $101,909 | -2.97% | $105,028 |
| 11 | +1 | $101,909 | $2,038 | $103,947 | -1.03% | $105,028 |
| 12 | −1 | $103,947 | -$1,039 | $102,908 | -2.02% | $105,028 |
| 13 | −1 | $102,908 | -$1,029 | $101,878 | -3.00% | $105,028 |
| 14 | −1 | $101,878 | -$1,019 | $100,860 | -3.97% | $105,028 |
| 15 | +1 | $100,860 | $2,017 | $102,877 | -2.05% | $105,028 |
| 16 | −1 | $102,877 | -$1,029 | $101,848 | -3.03% | $105,028 |
| 17 | +1 | $101,848 | $2,037 | $103,885 | -1.09% | $105,028 |
| 18 | −1 | $103,885 | -$1,039 | $102,846 | -2.08% | $105,028 |
| 19 | +1 | $102,846 | $2,057 | $104,903 | -0.12% | $105,028 |
| 20 | −1 | $104,903 | -$1,049 | $103,854 | -1.12% | $105,028 |
| 21 | −1 | $103,854 | -$1,039 | $102,816 | -2.11% | $105,028 |
| 22 | +1 | $102,816 | $2,056 | $104,872 | -0.15% | $105,028 |
| 23 | −1 | $104,872 | -$1,049 | $103,823 | -1.15% | $105,028 |
| 24 | +1 | $103,823 | $2,076 | $105,900 | 0.00% | $105,028 |
| 25 | +1 | $105,900 | $2,118 | $108,018 | 0.00% | $105,900 |
| 26 | −1 | $108,018 | -$1,080 | $106,937 | -1.00% | $108,018 |
| 27 | −1 | $106,937 | -$1,069 | $105,868 | -1.99% | $108,018 |
| 28 | −1 | $105,868 | -$1,059 | $104,809 | -2.97% | $108,018 |
| 29 | −1 | $104,809 | -$1,048 | $103,761 | -3.94% | $108,018 |
| 30 | +1 | $103,761 | $2,075 | $105,837 | -2.02% | $108,018 |
| 31 | +1 | $105,837 | $2,117 | $107,953 | -0.06% | $108,018 |
| 32 | +1 | $107,953 | $2,159 | $110,112 | 0.00% | $108,018 |
| 33 | +1 | $110,112 | $2,202 | $112,315 | 0.00% | $110,112 |
| 34 | −1 | $112,315 | -$1,123 | $111,191 | -1.00% | $112,315 |
| 35 | −1 | $111,191 | -$1,112 | $110,080 | -1.99% | $112,315 |
| 36 | +1 | $110,080 | $2,202 | $112,281 | -0.03% | $112,315 |
| 37 | +1 | $112,281 | $2,246 | $114,527 | 0.00% | $112,315 |
| 38 | −1 | $114,527 | -$1,145 | $113,381 | -1.00% | $114,527 |
| 39 | +1 | $113,381 | $2,268 | $115,649 | 0.00% | $114,527 |
| 40 | −1 | $115,649 | -$1,156 | $114,493 | -1.00% | $115,649 |
| 41 | −1 | $114,493 | -$1,145 | $113,348 | -1.99% | $115,649 |
| 42 | +1 | $113,348 | $2,267 | $115,615 | -0.03% | $115,649 |
| 43 | +1 | $115,615 | $2,312 | $117,927 | 0.00% | $115,649 |
| 44 | −1 | $117,927 | -$1,179 | $116,748 | -1.00% | $117,927 |
| 45 | −1 | $116,748 | -$1,167 | $115,580 | -1.99% | $117,927 |
| 46 | +1 | $115,580 | $2,312 | $117,892 | -0.03% | $117,927 |
| 47 | −1 | $117,892 | -$1,179 | $116,713 | -1.03% | $117,927 |
| 48 | −1 | $116,713 | -$1,167 | $115,546 | -2.02% | $117,927 |
| 49 | −1 | $115,546 | -$1,155 | $114,390 | -3.00% | $117,927 |
| 50 | +1 | $114,390 | $2,288 | $116,678 | -1.06% | $117,927 |
| 51 | −1 | $116,678 | -$1,167 | $115,511 | -2.05% | $117,927 |
| 52 | −1 | $115,511 | -$1,155 | $114,356 | -3.03% | $117,927 |
| 53 | −1 | $114,356 | -$1,144 | $113,213 | -4.00% | $117,927 |
| 54 | −1 | $113,213 | -$1,132 | $112,080 | -4.96% | $117,927 |
| 55 | −1 | $112,080 | -$1,121 | $110,960 | -5.91% | $117,927 |
| 56 | −1 | $110,960 | -$1,110 | $109,850 | -6.85% | $117,927 |
| 57 | +1 | $109,850 | $2,197 | $112,047 | -4.99% | $117,927 |
| 58 | −1 | $112,047 | -$1,120 | $110,927 | -5.94% | $117,927 |
| 59 | +1 | $110,927 | $2,219 | $113,145 | -4.05% | $117,927 |
| 60 | +1 | $113,145 | $2,263 | $115,408 | -2.14% | $117,927 |
| 61 | −1 | $115,408 | -$1,154 | $114,254 | -3.11% | $117,927 |
| 62 | −1 | $114,254 | -$1,143 | $113,111 | -4.08% | $117,927 |
| 63 | −1 | $113,111 | -$1,131 | $111,980 | -5.04% | $117,927 |
| 64 | −1 | $111,980 | -$1,120 | $110,861 | -5.99% | $117,927 |
| 65 | +1 | $110,861 | $2,217 | $113,078 | -4.11% | $117,927 |
| 66 | −1 | $113,078 | -$1,131 | $111,947 | -5.07% | $117,927 |
| 67 | −1 | $111,947 | -$1,119 | $110,827 | -6.02% | $117,927 |
| 68 | −1 | $110,827 | -$1,108 | $109,719 | -6.96% | $117,927 |
| 69 | −1 | $109,719 | -$1,097 | $108,622 | -7.89% | $117,927 |
| 70 | −1 | $108,622 | -$1,086 | $107,536 | -8.81% | $117,927 |
| 71 | −1 | $107,536 | -$1,075 | $106,460 | -9.72% | $117,927 |
| 72 | −1 | $106,460 | -$1,065 | $105,396 | -10.63% | $117,927 |
| 73 | +1 | $105,396 | $2,108 | $107,504 | -8.84% | $117,927 |
| 74 | −1 | $107,504 | -$1,075 | $106,429 | -9.75% | $117,927 |
| 75 | −1 | $106,429 | -$1,064 | $105,364 | -10.65% | $117,927 |
| 76 | +1 | $105,364 | $2,107 | $107,472 | -8.87% | $117,927 |
| 77 | −1 | $107,472 | -$1,075 | $106,397 | -9.78% | $117,927 |
| 78 | +1 | $106,397 | $2,128 | $108,525 | -7.97% | $117,927 |
| 79 | −1 | $108,525 | -$1,085 | $107,440 | -8.89% | $117,927 |
| 80 | +1 | $107,440 | $2,149 | $109,588 | -7.07% | $117,927 |
| 81 | −1 | $109,588 | -$1,096 | $108,493 | -8.00% | $117,927 |
| 82 | −1 | $108,493 | -$1,085 | $107,408 | -8.92% | $117,927 |
| 83 | −1 | $107,408 | -$1,074 | $106,334 | -9.83% | $117,927 |
| 84 | +1 | $106,334 | $2,127 | $108,460 | -8.03% | $117,927 |
| 85 | −1 | $108,460 | -$1,085 | $107,376 | -8.95% | $117,927 |
| 86 | −1 | $107,376 | -$1,074 | $106,302 | -9.86% | $117,927 |
| 87 | −1 | $106,302 | -$1,063 | $105,239 | -10.76% | $117,927 |
| 88 | +1 | $105,239 | $2,105 | $107,344 | -8.97% | $117,927 |
| 89 | −1 | $107,344 | -$1,073 | $106,270 | -9.88% | $117,927 |
| 90 | +1 | $106,270 | $2,125 | $108,396 | -8.08% | $117,927 |
| 91 | −1 | $108,396 | -$1,084 | $107,312 | -9.00% | $117,927 |
| 92 | −1 | $107,312 | -$1,073 | $106,239 | -9.91% | $117,927 |
| 93 | −1 | $106,239 | -$1,062 | $105,176 | -10.81% | $117,927 |
| 94 | −1 | $105,176 | -$1,052 | $104,124 | -11.70% | $117,927 |
| 95 | −1 | $104,124 | -$1,041 | $103,083 | -12.59% | $117,927 |
| 96 | −1 | $103,083 | -$1,031 | $102,052 | -13.46% | $117,927 |
| 97 | +1 | $102,052 | $2,041 | $104,093 | -11.73% | $117,927 |
| 98 | −1 | $104,093 | -$1,041 | $103,052 | -12.61% | $117,927 |
| 99 | −1 | $103,052 | -$1,031 | $102,022 | -13.49% | $117,927 |
| 100 | −1 | $102,022 | -$1,020 | $101,002 | -14.35% | $117,927 |
Compounding risk on current balance. Nothing is saved.
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